Introduction
As of July 7, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near $109,000, just shy of its all-time high of $110,000, with Bitcoin dominance soaring to 65.7%, targeting 66%. Meanwhile, the “All Bitcoin Pairs” metric (Total 3 - USDT / BTC) has dropped to 0.31, inching toward the range low of 0.25. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in June, surpassing expectations of 4.3%, pushing Fed rate cut odds to a mere 5% for July and signaling a prolonged quantitative tightening (QT) environment. As observers of the crypto universe at WWW.29BTC.com, we dive into the pivotal role of Bitcoin’s 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), the unstoppable rise of Bitcoin dominance, and the altcoin market’s ongoing struggles, uncovering investment opportunities for the second half of 2025!
The 50-Week SMA: Bitcoin’s Cycle Anchor
The 50-week SMA, currently at $85,000-$86,000, is a cornerstone of Bitcoin’s market cycle. As long as BTC holds above this level, the bullish structure remains intact, signaling potential for further gains. In the current cycle (2023-2025), Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the 50-week SMA:
Q3 2023 (August-September): Touched and held firm.
Q3 2024 (August-September): Re-tested, confirming support.
Q1-Q2 2025 (March-April): Tested and rebounded, propelling BTC past $110,000.
Earlier this year, we predicted that holding the 2024 high and the 50-week SMA would pave the way for new all-time highs—a forecast now realized. Historically, a weekly close below the 50-week SMA signals the end of a bull cycle:
2013-2014: A 2014 weekly close below the 50-week SMA confirmed the bear market, with BTC already down 60% from its peak, halfway through the decline.
2017-2018: Testing in early 2018, followed by a break below, marked the bear market’s onset.
2021 Anomaly: A July 2021 weekly close below the 50-week SMA preceded a new high, as it occurred in a non-midterm election year, defying typical cycle patterns.
This cycle’s frequent tests reflect market maturity and diminishing returns, with smaller bull run extensions leading to closer encounters with the 50-week SMA during pullbacks. We anticipate another potential test in Q3 2025 (August-September). If BTC holds, it could rally to $120,000; a break below, confirmed by two consecutive weekly closes, would raise bearish concerns.
Bitcoin Dominance: The King’s Unrelenting Rise
Bitcoin dominance stands at 65.7%, with our forecast pointing to 66% by August-September, potentially overshooting to 66.2%. The “All Bitcoin Pairs” metric has fallen to 0.31 (0.29 excluding USDC, 0.28 for Total 3 ES Bitcoin), targeting the 0.25 range low—a 20% further decline. Historical patterns support this trajectory:
2017: Hit 0.25 in late October, sparking an altcoin season.
2019: Dropped from 0.31 in July to 0.25 by August-September, coinciding with QT’s end.
2023-2024: June lows followed by rallies, with new lows in October-November.
We expect a similar path in 2025: a potential short-term bounce in June-July, followed by a decline to 0.25 in August-September or October-November, marking the “rip the band-aid off” moment for altcoins. Altcoin USD valuations may briefly rise with Bitcoin’s gains, but their BTC valuations continue to bleed, underscoring Bitcoin’s low-risk, high-reward profile.
Driving Forces
ETF Inflows and Corporate Adoption: 2024 saw significant Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate buying (e.g., MicroStrategy), bolstering prices.
Altcoin Conversion: Investors swapping altcoins for Bitcoin fuel dominance growth.
Market Undervaluation: The crypto market’s total capitalization of $3.266 trillion is 18.23% below its fair value of $3.99 trillion, favoring Bitcoin’s outperformance.
Macro Context: Robust Labor Market Delays Rate Cuts
June’s U.S. labor market data surprised with non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs (beating expectations of 110,000) and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% from 4.2%, below forecasts of 4.3%. Key metrics include:
Initial Jobless Claims: 233,000, well below the 300,000 recession threshold.
Job Openings: 7.4 million, signaling steady hiring demand.
Quit Rate: Slightly up, reflecting confidence in new opportunities.
The robust labor market has slashed Fed rate cut expectations:
July Meeting: 5% chance of a cut, 95.3% chance of holding rates at 4.25%-4.50%.
September Outlook: 70% chance of a cut, down from 95%, with a 33% chance of no cut.
Fed Chair Powell’s caution stems from potential tariff-driven inflation (core PCE projected at 3.6% by Q4 2025), extending QT. We believe inflation may rise temporarily but won’t mirror the 1970s’ multi-wave spikes. The prolonged QT and above-neutral federal funds rate (R-star) continue to pressure high-risk assets like altcoins, reinforcing Bitcoin’s dominance.
Why the Altcoin Season Is Delayed
An altcoin season requires declining Bitcoin dominance and “All Bitcoin Pairs” hitting 0.25. At 0.31, a further 20% drop is needed, likely aligning with monetary easing (e.g., September rate cuts or QT’s end). Historical altcoin seasons began in October-November (2017, 2023, 2024), suggesting a Q4 2025 start if conditions align.
Investment Strategies: Bitcoin as the Core Asset
Prioritize Bitcoin: The 50-week SMA ($85,000-$86,000) holds, signaling an intact bull cycle. At $109,000, BTC offers a prime entry point. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) mitigates volatility, with a long-term market cap target of $10 trillion.
Exercise Caution with Altcoins: Short-term bounces in June-July are likely traps, with a probable decline to 0.25 in August-September or October-November. An altcoin season awaits monetary easing.
Monitor Q3 Dynamics: A Q3 test of the 50-week SMA could lead to a rally to $120,000 if support holds; a confirmed break below signals bearish risks. September’s potential rate cut is a key pivot.
Secure Storage: Use cold wallets (e.g., Ledger) to safeguard BTC, minimizing exchange risks.
Trade the Real Market: Measure portfolios in Satoshis, focusing on Bitcoin’s strength rather than chasing an altcoin season that hasn’t materialized.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Reign and the Path to 66%
In July 2025, Bitcoin’s 50-week SMA anchors the bull cycle, with dominance nearing 66% and altcoin pairs sliding to 0.31, eyeing 0.25. A robust labor market (4.1% unemployment) and delayed rate cuts bolster Bitcoin’s low-risk, high-reward profile. With the crypto market undervalued by 18.23%, August-September looms as a critical juncture. Bitcoin remains the crypto universe’s king—join us in riding the wave!
Visit WWW.29BTC.com for crypto universe insights and seize the market’s pulse! See you at 66%!
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